However, the records of sunspots are sparse and limited to those by naked-eye observation in the case of the Spoerer Minimum, and thus, a direct comparison with sunspot disappearance cannot be achieved. It's not known what drives these cycles recent research suggests it has to do with an 11.07-year planetary alignment but the poles switch when the polar magnetic field is at its weakest; this occurs near the solar maximum. The sun has a cycle of activity lasting around 11 years. J. Cosmol. Miyahara, H. et al. We found that the solar cycle that started around 1601 CE lasted about 5years, much shorter than the mean length of solar cycles. (a) Solar activity level reconstructed based on multiple records of cosmic ray induced nuclides2. It is well known that the polar magnetic field in the solar cycle minimum highly correlates with the sunspot number in the next solar maximum10. Randal Jackson Several studies have attempted to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 with this method. The galactic cosmic rays shielded by the solar and heliospheric magnetic field produce carbon-14 or beryllium-10; therefore, their production rates reflect the variations of solar activity. PubMed in the decade 2031-2043. On the one hand, the flow speed of meridional circulation determines the cycle lengths17, although its structure is still controversial39. IntCal13 and marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 050,000 years cal BP. 291, 613642 (2006). By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use. We conclude, however, that the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 would be critically important to the later solar activity and that there remains the possibility that sunspots may disappear for decades in the case Solar Cycle 25 is substantially lengthened. This Chart Says Yes, To afford free speech, IWB needs to be fully reader-funded. S3a correspond to solar cycle minima of negative polarity, while the peaks around 1609 and 1636 correspond to positive polarity. 224, 317322 (2004). Vokhmyanin, M. & Zolotova, N. Sunspot positions and areas from observations by Pierre Gassendi. In this paper, we present solar cycles around the preparatory-period of the Maunder Minimum reconstructed based on unprecedentedly high-precision data of carbon-14, and make a direct comparison with sunspot records. The measurements achieved a precision of 0.030.08% with an average of 0.05%, more than four times better than that usually pursued (for details, see Methods section). Alex is passionate about sharing science with diverse audiences. Grand Solar Minima happen when the peaks of several solar cycles in a row show less than average intensity. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. People closely observing the Sun will see more sunspots during solar maximum. Sol. We don't know precisely when the next solar minimum will occur, but we can broadly predict it. Because the Sun's magnetic field controls solar activity sunspots, coronal mass ejections and solar flares the cycle is detectable to us as that activity changes. The sun is a seething mass of activity. During this period, the temperatures across much of the northern hemisphere plunged. The Sun exhibits centennial-scale activity variations and sometimes encounters grand solar minimum when solar activity becomes extremely weak and sunspots disappear for several decades.. However, we still have an underdeveloped understanding of solar dynamo mechanisms and hence precise prediction of near-future solar activity is not attained. A&A 396, 10291035 (2002). Instrum. The data set that supports the findings of this study is listed in Table S1. During that time, the sun was largely devoid of any sunspots. The variability of reconstructed GCR intensity in Fig. Anomalous periods like a Grand Solar Minimum show that magnetic activity and energy output from the Sun can vary over decades, although the space-based observations of the last 35 years have seen little change from one cycle to the next in terms of total irradiance. First through Facebook and Twitter then adding an extensive website thesuntoday.org, the two work together to engage the public about the Sun and its role in our solar system. The Dalton Minimum is different from the Maunder and the Spoerer minima regarding its duration and depth. Figure S5a shows the chi-square values for Cycle #1. Sol. Since 1750, the warming driven by greenhouse gases coming from the human burning of fossil fuels is over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself over that same time interval. Our current understanding of solar dynamos will predict the change in meridional circulation only when a large-scale magnetic field is developed to disrupt the flow by the Lorentz force, angular momentum transport, or by the changing pressure balance due to the sunspot emergence40. In December of last year, the NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel narrowed it down further, stating that "solar minimum between cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months).". Phys. He is the Associate Director for Science in the Heliophysics Science Division at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The diffusion of the magnetic field of the tilted sunspot pairs and the anisotropic orientation of every scale of the surface magnetic field construct the polar magnetic field11. Extending the high-precision data, therefore, is needed to narrow the estimation range for this cycle. In this study, we made comparisons between the modeled and measured data for each cosmic-ray cycle, starting from sunspot maximum to the next maximum. All in all, we will enter a cooler time period And this cold spell may last up to 50 years Arlt, R., Senthamizh Pavai, V., Schmiel, C. & Spada, F. Sunspot positions, areas, and group tilt angles for 16111631 from observations by Christoph Scheiner. This affects us because Earth's climate gets cooler when there are fewer solar storms. Earths upper atmosphere cools and, to some degree, can collapse. While the length of Solar Cycle 23 was 12.7years,~2years longer than usual, the Solar Cycle 24 did not show a significant lengthening. It was the. Humanities and Sciences/Museum Careers, Musashino Art University, Tokyo, 187-8505, Japan, Faculty of Science, Yamagata University, Yamagata, 990-8560, Japan, Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry, Yamagata University, Yamagata, 999-3101, Japan, Fuyuki Tokanai,Toru Moriya&Mirei Takeyama, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Hirosaki University, Hirosaki, Aomori, 036-8561, Japan, Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, 1-33 Yayoi-cho, Inage-ku, Chiba, 263-8522, Japan, You can also search for this author in Europe's total electricity generation over the first quarter of 2023 was 1,213 terawatt hours, which is some 6.4% less than during the same period in 2022, according to data from think tank Ember.. And with efforts underway to try and revive activity at scores of European factories, industrial plants and production lines that were shuttered or curtailed in 2022, Europe's electricity demand . Such an extreme weakening of solar activity could cause severe climate, causing massive reductions in crop yields in some regions. 40, 10601063 (2007). Grand Solar Minimum Crop Loss Map Modern agriculture is at risk due to cyclical changes in our sun's output that drive climate change on our planet. April 10, 2023. First, we constructed a model curve for the sunspot cycle. During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun emitted less strong ultraviolet light, and so less ozone formed . Although insignificant, troughs are seen in the results for Cycle #5 around 1018years. This coincides with the scenario that the reduction in the speed of meridional circulation could be related to the physical process of the drastic weakening of solar activity. 73, 14541459 (2011). A periodic solar event called a "Grand Solar Minimum" has started in 2020 and will probably last until 2070. 3d, the reconstructed solar cycles are compared with the number of sunspot groups. Red and gray lines are the high-precision data and their uncertainty ranges. We used the compact Accelerator Mass Spectrometer (AMS) installed at the Yamagata University26, 27 for the measurement of carbon-14 content in tree rings. J. "Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. His reaction was priceless, Budweisers Attempt to Win Back Public Goes Horribly Wrong as Social Media Obliterates New Clydesdale Horse Ad in EPIC Fashion, Financial System Is DONE, Nothing Left: Fed Will Now Fast-Track CBDCs, Mexico Deploying 15,000 Troops To U S Border To Stop Illegal Immigration Into US, Is The Stock Market About To Drop? 272, 290295 (2008). CAS As to the possibility of the occurrence of another Maunder-like event, some indications could be, for example, retrieved from directly observing the solar surface. Vibration frequency changes effecting human consciousness S5, are the ones counted from the sunspot maximum to the next maximum; therefore, we manually counted the lengths of the solar cycles from the sunspot minimum to minimum. On average, the solar cycle takes about 11 years to go from one solar minimum to the next, with duration observed varying from 9 to 14 years. Contact / Submit News The Sun exhibits centennial-scale activity variations and sometimes encounters grand solar minimum when solar activity becomes extremely weak and sunspots disappear for several decades. from 1597 to 1658 CE). Downward peaks indicate the deep minima in solar activity when the number of sunspots significantly decrease or even disappear from the solar surface. "During solar minimum, the Sun's magnetic field weakens and provides less shielding from these cosmic rays," said astronomer Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in 2017. Is the Sun heading for another Maunder Minimum? Ball, W. T. et al. conducted measurements. By normalizing the sunspot cycles both by the peak numbers and cycle lengths, we averaged the 27 sunspot cycles since 1712 CE to construct a typical curve for the sunspot cycle. Tokanai, F. et al. Until its not. The minima of reconstructed solar cycles shown in Fig. 823, L22 (2016). The solar magnetic polarity reverses at every maximum of sunspot decadal-scale cycle, and this polarity influences the trajectory of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. To find out more, see here: Andrew Tate: Ive been thinking long and hard and its time to admit I was wrong. Now, although the suns actiivty is rising overall, we do sometimes see several days in a row of quiet, as we did last week. December 2019 marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 25, and the Sun's activity will once again ramp up until solar maximum, predicted for 2025. Long-term solar activity during the past millennium. Image of the Sun showing a solar prominence (a large, bright feature extending outward from the Sun's surface). volume11, Articlenumber:5482 (2021) What are the characteristics of the Solar System? B. Investigation of solar cycles before the Maunder Minimum, when sunspot records are available, is indispensable for understanding the process of extreme weakening of solar activity. Reports suggested global temperatures would plummet, producing a mini ice age. Temperatures dropped, crops failed, and many people around the world starved to death, or died from the cold. A few days of quiet on the sun doesnt mean were headed for one now. Starting with the hype: During the last grand solar minimum (GSM), the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715, glaciers advanced, rivers froze, sea ice expanded -- in short, the Little Ice Age.. Dikpati, M. & Charbonneau, P. A BabcockLeighton flux transport dynamo with solar-like differential rotation. A&A 471, 301309 (2007). H.M., F.T., T.M., M.T., and K.H. Based on this estimation, we constructed synthetic cosmic-ray curves starting around 15911596 CE with negative polarity. Bond, G. et al. Sinkholes The length of the cycle just before the Maunder Minimum again seems to be lengthened to be about 1215years. NASA gave this idea a sound drubbing earlier this year. The largest recent event -- the "Maunder Minimum," which lasted from 1645 and 1715 overlapped with the "Little Ice Age" (13 th to mid-19 th century). 3d are in 1601 and 1606 CE, and we find that both correspond to the period the number of reported aurorae is small (see Fig. Indirect observations of past solar cycles using carbon-14 in tree rings also revealed a similar tendency. New species of hominids Present status of YU-AMS system. The agreement between the sunspot/auroral data and the reconstructed solar cycles based on carbon-14 confirms that carbon-14 assists in tracing past solar cycles, although the variations are significantly attenuated in the carbon cycle and, thus, there is need for high-precision measurements. Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: plateau of solar axial dipole moment. Scientists believe the Sun was at its weakest in 2019 in the last 100 years or so known as the solar minimum and 2020 marks the beginning of the 25th cycle. The procedure is as follows: (1) construct model curves for sunspot cycle, (2) construct correspondent cosmic-ray variations, (3) solve the three-box carbon cycle model to derive the resultant atmospheric carbon-14 variations, and (4) compare them with the high-precision carbon-14 data. This website is produced by the Earth Science Communications Team at, Site Editor: The outside projection calls for a 17-year decline and that lines up with the peak in the ECM 2032. In February 2018, the Sun had no spots for almost two weeks. Except that had nothing to do with the Sun's activity. Article 886, 18 (2019). "Pink elephant in the room" time: There is no impending ice age or "mini ice age" if there's a reduction in the Suns energy output in the next several decades. We replicated such measurements several times until the uncertainty of 14C becomes smaller than 0.08%. What could be happening is a very normal period in the Sun's 11-year cycle; it's called solar minimum. Read the sun news: Go to EarthSkys live sun page. Living Rev. In this study, we assumed that the possible ranges for the above four parameters are (1) 40440, (2) 40, (3) 7 years, and (4) 3 years. This period, called the Maunder Minimum, was accompanied by bitterly cold winters in the American colonies. Correspondence to During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the . Here we then focus on the results calculated with Yst=1595. We used the three-box carbon cycle model with carbon-14 exchange rates presented by Roth and Joos43. Like news tabloids reporting that the Sun is in "lockdown", and that Earth is doomed to crazy weather famine and earthquakes, for some reason. We constructed sunspot cycles with these parameters starting from the sunspot maximum (cosmic-ray minimum) and obtained the corresponding cosmic-ray variations, as described below. Detection of equatorward meridional flow and evidence of double-cell meridional circulation inside the sun. Hydroclimate reconstruction in central Japan over the past four centuries from tree-ring cellulose 18O. Rev. On occasion, researchers have predicted that coming solar cycles may also exhibit extended periods of minimal activity. So what about this solar cycle? Solar Cycle 25 is now underway and expected to peak with 115 sunspots in July 2025. Astron. Although the sunspot groups reconstructed by Hoyt and Schatten4 back to 1610 CE had shown a sudden onset of the Maunder Minimum, careful re-examination of historical sunspot records by Vaquero et al.24 resolved that the transition into the Maunder Minimum was gradual, with two suppressed activity cycles before the onset. C. Alex Young is a solar astrophysicist studying the Sun and space weather. For more news about the changes ahead, stay tuned to science.nasa.gov. Visible light images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory show the Sun at solar minimum in December 2019 and the last solar maximum in April 2014. The solar cycle is based on the Sun's magnetic field, which flips around every 11 years, with its north and south magnetic poles switching places. Conversely, the increase in UV radiation during solar maximum contributes to rainfall, but the effect on temperature is negligible. Muoz-Jaramillo, A. The large state offers plenty of affordable, undeveloped land that could become the perfect homestead. Scientists at NASA say we're currently in a "Grand Solar Minimum." And its a regular part of the sunspot cycle.. Radiocarbon 55, 18691887 (2013). On the basis of the high-precision data as obtained above, we reconstructed the solar cycles around the onset of the Maunder Minimum. Quiet times on the sun have been known to extend for decades or even centuries.. Astrophys. The extreme example happened between 1645 and 1715 when the normal 11-year sunspot cycle vanished. Recently, there have also been several researches reconstructing sunspot butterfly diagram for this period29,30,31,32,33. But during a solar minimum, the NASA article stated, "this natural heating mechanism subsides," adding: Earth's upper atmosphere cools and, to some degree, can collapse. In the framework of the flux transport dynamo model, which is known to reproduce several features of solar cycle, solar activity level is determined by either or both of two factors: dynamo excitation by the randomly determined tilt of sunspot pairs37 and the change in the meridional circulation in the solar convection zone38. 295, 39 (2020). Note that the mean cycle length since 1755 CE is 11.021.2years36. In this way, we determined the profile of cosmic ray variations that could well explain the observed carbon-14 and then estimated the most probable variations for solar cycles. Overall sunspot numbers typically rise dramatically at the peak of every cycle. . One possible interpretation of the multiple lengthened cycles before the Maunder Minimum is that the speed of meridional circulation was significantly slowed down to contribute to the reduction of the magnetic field that emerges on the solar surface as sunspots. The relatively low values achieved in the case of Cycle #4 is 12, 13, and 14years. Science news, great photos, sky alerts. The largest recent event -- the Maunder Minimum, which lasted from 1645 and 1715 overlapped with the Little Ice Age (13th to mid-19th century). S3a, respectively) before 1597 CE besides our high-precision data from 1597 CE. We assume that it is because of the suppression of the decadal-scale variation around the time as well as the relatively large errors of our data toward the end of the series. Radiocarbon 55, 251259 (2013). This led him to start The Sun Today with his designer wife, Linda. Solar activity simply changes form. Living a self-sustainable lifestyle. No matter what else might happen in our lives, our families, our neighborhoods, or our country, our world is facing predictable dark cold years, estimated to begin in 2028 and continue at least through 2032. Kataoka, R., Miyahara, H. & Steinhilber, F. Anomalous 10Be spikes during the Maunder Minimum: Possible evidence for extreme space weather in the heliosphere. J. To reveal the most probable solar and cosmic ray variations for this period, we constructed multiple synthetic cosmic-ray variations with possible parameter ranges, used them as input into the carbon cycle model, and compared the resulted carbon-14 content against the high-precision data (for details, see Methods section). And it's nothing to be afraid of - if you're reading this, chances are you've already lived through several solar minimums without even noticing. As mentioned above, the determined cycle lengths, based on Fig. Then, to examine the degree of coincidence between the modeled carbon-14 and the measured ones (blue and red lines in Fig. On the basis of the relationship, we constructed a simple model (red and blue lines) to construct the curves of cosmic-ray cycles from the sunspot activity cycles. and JavaScript. Note, however, that peaks in auroral activity may lag sunspot cycle maxima by a few years34. Res. This occurred around the early 19th century, which saw an extreme period in Earth's recorded history, centred around 1816 - the Year Without a Summer. Without a normal amount of drag, space junk tends to hang around. Because more factors than just variations in the Sun's output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today being the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.". It's been likened to a mini-Ice Age. Clim. Currently, we're in solar cycle 24. 17, 1 (2020). The limitations on the ascending and the declining phase of the cycles were determined based on the evolution of the sunspot cycles since 1712 CE (Fig. Space Weather 10, S11001 (2012). 3d is model-dependent and has some uncertainty for>270. Miyahara, H. et al. Pesnell says We see these holes throughout the solar cycle, but during solar minimum, they can last for a long time - six months or more. Streams of solar wind flowing from coronal holes can cause space weather effects near Earth when they hit Earths magnetic field. "This can pose an increased threat to astronauts traveling through space.". Your email address will only be used for EarthSky content. Canada record power draw and near power grid down 2017, 2018 S3). Hoyt, D. V. & Schatten, K. H. Group sunspot numbers: a new solar activity reconstruction. S3a), we calculated the chi-square values X2= (14Cmodeled14Cmeasured)2/2 for each calculated cycle, where is the uncertainty of the measured carbon-14. PubMed Babcock, H. W. The topology of the Suns magnetic field and the 22-year cycle. Magnetic flux transport and the Suns dipole moment: new twists to the BabcockLeighton model. McComas, D. J. et al. Satellites in low Earth orbit experience friction as they skim through the outskirts of our atmosphere. 8 of Vquez et al.35). H.M. and H.H. Phys. We, therefore, extrapolated the curves for sunspot numbers<0 to consider the cases of cosmic-ray flux exceeding the level of 20082009 CE either by the further weakened solar magnetic field or by the change in the heliospheric structure. 5. 3b show the range of the modeled carbon-14 variations whose degree of coincidence with the measured data was high. And so some have asked if the sun could be moving toward a Grand Solar Minimum now. To obtain Google Scholar. We found that the chi-square value is the smallest when the length of Cycle #1 is 8years and Yst is 1595. Please donate here. An important finding of this study is that the lengthening of solar cycle started three cycles before the onset of the Maunder Minimum. J. Atmos. United States-16%. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Suns output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The absolute levels of sunspot activity over the subsequent two cycles needs to be determined through the ongoing efforts to discover additional historical records and to improve the methodology of reconstruction31; however, the sunspot reconstructions during the recent decade have indicated a tendency of gradual reduction in the cycle amplitudes toward the Maunder Minimum5, 6, 24, 31 and are consistent with our results. Figure S1a displays the weighted mean of 14C for the Murou and Ise samples (black and blue circles), respectively. The solar cycles aren't generally noticeable here on Earth. A new study predicts that the next grand solar minimum could see the sun with almost a 7% reductio n in light and heat - and this is 7% below the normal solar minimum. Quat. Grand Solar Minimum related Risks Grand solar minimum & glacial cycle stage related risks This Grand Solar Minimum portends global cooling, drought, and extreme weather, climate-forcing volcanism, and zoonosis-pandemics by mutating-RNA viruses (influenza-A, coronaviruses, other). Drag is a good thing, for space junk; natural and man-made particles floating in orbit around Earth. 35, L18103 (2008). sunspot minimum of 13-month moving averages, and that the timing of cycle minima suggested by the butterfly diagram may have uncertainties less than a few months. 518, 508520 (1999). 3c exceeds the range what we have observed during the era of neutron monitors; therefore, we have used the GCR-sunspot relationship extrapolated from the available data (see Methods section). These effects can include temporary disturbances of the Earths magnetosphere, called geomagnetic storms, auroras, and disruptions to communications and navigation systems. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Living Rev. The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. B. Earth Planet. For instance, says Pesnell, during solar minimum we can see the development of long-lived coronal holes.. Astron. Astrophys. . 8, 19701982 (2010). Proc. But they are at a lower intensity than usual. Managing Editor: Sol. Phys. Cite this article. The combined neutron monitor data (Fig. Phys. While scientists continue to research whether an extended solar minimum could have contributed to cooling the climate, there is little evidence that the Maunder Minimum sparked the Little Ice Age, or at least not entirely by itself (notably, the Little Ice Age began before the Maunder Minimum). Senior Producer: Use the Previous and Next buttons to navigate the slides or the slide controller buttons at the end to navigate through each slide. (b) Band-pass-filtered carbon-14 data in (a) with the bandwidth of 815years (thick curve) and 115years (gray line). Expansion in Earths crust causing quakes in strange places Scientists dont yet know with confidence how strong the next solar cycle may be. Sunspots freckle the Sun during solar maximum; the dark spots are associated with solar activity. For the pre-telescopic era, historical aurorae records can be used to examine the validity of solar cycles reconstructed by carbon-14. Sol. Intensely replicated measurements of tree-ring carbon-14 concentrations were conducted using the compact Accelerator Mass Spectrometer installed at Yamagata University in Japan26, 27. 291, 30613074 (2016). The black lines show the modeled carbon-14 data that were most consistent with the data (for details on the dashed line, see Methods section and Fig. Documenting Earth Changes During The Next Grand Solar Minimum. The sunspot cycle minima reconstructed based on carbon-14 are in 1622 CE and 1633 CE, which are consistent with the reconstructed butterfly diagram. H.M. performed data analyses and modeling with the comments by H.S. This gradually changes as the Sun ramps up to solar maximum. Arlt, R. & Vaquero, J. M. Historical sunspot records. J. Because of the cumulation of carbon-14 in the atmosphere, it shows an upward trend while the solar magnetic activity is in a relatively weak condition. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative. Here we show that the 11-year solar cycles were significantly lengthened before the onset of the Maunder Minimum (16451715 CE) based on unprecedentedly high-precision data of carbon-14 content in tree rings. Lett. While humans are experiencing things that are decidedly not okay, the Sun is doing nothing unusual whatsoever. We may see more aurora activity during solar maximum, since auroras are generated by solar activity. ADS The Maunder Minimum in the late 17th Century was a roughly 50 year period from about 1650 to 1700 when sunspots vanished, for reasons which are not yet fully understood. Interestingly, later paper pointed out the possibility that the change in cycle length might have started a few cycles before the Maunder or the Spoerer Minima23. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. Several studies in recent years have looked at the effects that another Grand Solar Minimum might have on global surface temperatures. The authors also thank Dr. Manfred Schssler for his careful reading of the manuscript. InvestmentWatchBlog.com 2013-2022. Some scientists have drawn a connection between solar minimum and volcanic activity, but it's weak and different papers don't agree on the periodicity. S1b are the annual data previously obtained by Stuiver et al.21. Karak, B. High up in the clear blue noontime sky, the sun appears to be much the same day-in, day-out, year after year. A revised collection of sunspot group numbers. It has been suggested that a lengthened solar cycle precedes a decrease in solar activity16. All those problems were caused by the colossal 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia. Your submission has been received! GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM RESOURCES - Official ADAPT 2030 Website Keeping Your Families Grand Solar Minimum Prepared GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM RESOURCES Our Sun has begun a 30 year cycle of decreased activity termed a Grand Solar Minimum and known by it's more common effect "Global Cooling".

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